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Event Brief of Q3 2009 Tiffany & Co. Earnings Conference Call – Final

admin @ February 17, 2010  

Tags: tiffany pendants

A. Key Data From Call 1. 3Q09 worldwide sales = $598m. 2. 3Q09 net earnings from continuing tiffany = $43.3m. 3. 3Q09 diluted EPS from continuing operations = $0.34. 4. 3Q09 GM = 54.8%. 5. YTD 2009 CapEx = $47m. 6. 3Q09-end cash and cash equivalents = $375m. 7. 3Q09-end total short-term and long-term debt = $753m. 8. 2009 annual EPS guidance = $1.88-1.98.

PRESENTATION SUMMARY

S1. 3Q09 Operational Review (M.A.) 1. Highlights: 1. Sales and earnings in latest qtr. surpassed expectations. 2. Worldwide sales declined 3% to $598m. 1. Equal to last year, excluding decline in wholesale sales of diamonds tied to diamond sourcing program. 2. 16% decline in 2Q09. 3. 22% decline in 1Q09. 4. Bolsters confidence that Co. can achieve expectations for rest of year. 2. Americas: 1. Sales declined 9%. 1. Little better than expected. 2. Included smaller declines in latter part of qtr. 2. US: 1. Total retail sales, 9% below last year, due to: 1. Decline in avg. transaction size. 2. Smaller decline in number of transactions. 2. Store traffic, below last year’s levels. 3. Smaller declines in number of transactions led to improvement in customer conversion rate for second consecutive qtr. 4. Comparable store sales declined 10% vs.: 1. 14% decline in 3Q08. 2. Much larger declines of 34% and 27% in 1Q09 and 2Q09. 5. By month, comps declined 18% in Aug., 7% in Sept. and 5% in Oct. 1. In 3Q08, declined by 6%, 15% and 20% in these respective months. 2. Indicates no meaningful change in two year run rate over three months. 6. Customer Mix: 1. Decline in total sales, primarily affected by lower sales to local customers and to lesser degree by declines in tourist spending. 2. New York flagship store experienced declines in local customer and tourist spending. 7. Geography: 1. Sales in New York flagship store declined 8%. 2. Comp store sales in nine-store New York region declined 9%. 3. Aggregate US brand store comp store sales declined 11%. 4. There weren’t many markets meaningfully divergent from overall rate of decline although for what it is worth California was somewhat softer, Florida was somewhat stronger and stores in Hawaii and Guam posted solid increases. 5. Majority of stores achieved sales plans. 8. Price Stratification: 1. Continues to experience greatest percentage declines in sales occurring at highest price ranges, with relatively better performance at more accessible price points. 2. Compared with 1H09, percentage declines were smaller at all price strata. 9. High-End Business: 1. Recently held annual event in New York and several other cities this year in US and Asia tied to publication of Co.’s Blue Book. 2. Invited some of highest spending customers. 10. Opened two stores in US. 1. 5,800 sq. ft. store in Roseville Galleria near Sacramento. 2. 2,200 sq. ft. in Seattle’s University Village. 11. Aforementioned is second store in new concept that incorporates different approach to: 1. Visual merchandising. 2. Product assortment. 3. Selling style. 12. Difficult to evaluate performance of new store concept when launched in challenging economy. 13. Next week, will complete 2009 store expansion when Co. opens third store in Las Vegas in new Crystals at CityCenter complex. 14. e-Commerce and Catalog: 1. 9% decline in combined sales due to decline in avg. order size and number of orders. 2. Some improvement late in qtr. with orders growing in Oct. 3. Reduced catalog circulation by about 40%, in line with planned decline for full-year. 4. Will continue to utilize e-mail communications as effective way to attract customers to website and stores. 3. Achieved solid comp store sales growth in: 1. Mexico. 2. Brazil. 4. Expanded business in Canada. 1. Second store opened in Toronto earlier this year. 5. Expects low-teens percentage decline in full-year total sales. 1. Includes mid-teens percentage decline in comparable US stores sales for year. 3. Asia-Pacific: 1. On constant-exchange-rate basis, total sales increased 2%. 1. Exceeded expectations. 2. Followed 5% decline in 1H09. 2. Comparable store sales declined 3% due to continued weak sales in Japan that more than offset strength in rest of region. 3. Note: 1. Results covered now are all on constant-exchange-rate basis. 4. Japan: 1. Total sales declined 10% due to 13% drop in comp store sales. 1. Slightly worse than expected. 2. Comps declined throughout qtr. 1. No improvements in those in any month. 2. Nor any meaningful difference in comps within or outside Tokyo. 3. There was a favorable translation effect on sales due to strength of yen, which averaged [JPY0.92 to dollar vs. JPY1.05 last year]. 4. Last week, reduced prices in Japan by avg. of 5% to adjust for strong yen. 5. Not forecasting any improvement in 4Q09. 5. Outside Japan, continued to improve. 1. Total sales increased 18%. 2. Comp store sales gained 9%. 1. Followed 5% comp decline in 1Q09 and 5% comp increase in 2Q09. 2. Above expectations. 3. Continued strong growth in: 1. China. 2. Australia. 3. Singapore. 4. Noteworthy improvements from 2Q to 3Q in: 1. Hong Kong. 2. Korea. 3. Malaysia. 5. New store opened just earlier this year on Canton Road in Hong Kong, already posting highest sales volume of eight stores in this market. 6. Opened 10th store in Korea in Seoul. 7. In China, renovated and expanded Plaza 66 store in Shanghai. 8. Last week, opened fifth store in Australia in Melbourne suburb of Chadstone and is getting ready to open 10th store in tiffany bracelets in city of Shenyang. 1. Both will strengthen successful and growing presence in these countries. 9. On pace to roughly triple number of Co. stores in Mainland China from current nine stores to 25-30 in next five or so years. 6. Full-year sales outlook calls for sales in dollars equal to prior year. 1. Little better than previous expectations. 2. Includes mid-single digit comp decline on a constant-exchange-rate basis for year, due to softness in Japan. 4. Europe: 1. Total sales rose 16% in constant currencies. 2. Comparable store sales rose 9%. 1. Widely exceeded expectations. 2. On top of 8% comp increase last year. 3. Continues to believe solid sales growth reflects: 1. Co.’s relatively young presence. 2. Growing attraction among customers who are discovering TIF. 4. Strength, geographically broad-based. 1. Doing well in London, where vast majority of sales are made to local customers. 2. Stores benefiting from increased spending by Continental European and Asian visitors. 5. Sales on continent rose in most countries with noteworthy growth in Italy. 6. Expanded presence in UK. 1. Opened boutique at Selfridges in Manchester. 7. On 11/24/09, entered The Netherlands by opening a beautiful 2,100 sq. ft. store in Amsterdam. 8. Next month, plans to open another shop at Heathrow Airport in Terminal 3 adding to success Co. had with shop in Terminal 5. 9. For full-year, forecasting low-single digit increase in sales in dollars, reflecting high-single digit comp increase in constant currencies, which is better than previous target. 5. Other Channel: 1. Sales declined 81% due to lower wholesale sales of low quality rough diamonds, reflecting: 1. Reduction in purchases of rough diamonds this year and therefore fewer low quality stones to resell. 2. Better quality mix in assortments that Co. is purchasing. 2. Expects full-year sales to decline by about 60% vs. previous expectation of 50% decline. 6. Worldwide Product Perspective: 1. Improved performance in many categories, especially later in qtr. largely reflected comparisons to last year when sales plummeted. 1. May reflect some improvement in underlying demand in some markets. 2. Good increase in worldwide engagement jewelry sales. 3. Growth in gold and silver fashion jewelry. 1. Helped by success of Co.’s new Keys Collection, which is enjoying stellar start at all price points. 4. Improving performance in some other existing collections, including: 1. Return to Tiffany. 2. Metro. 3. Tiffany Notes. 4. Collection of gold and silver charms. 5. High-end statement jewelry sales continued to decline albeit at a lesser rate than earlier in year, due entirely to decline in pieces sold and not in avg. priced. 6. Sales of main designer jewelry, down. 7. Watch sales declined. 1. Rose in Oct. 2. Some exciting new designs, launched in US stores.

S2. 3Q09 Financials (J.F.) 1. Highlights: 1. GM declined 1.5 points to 54.8%. 1. Precious metal costs exhibited extreme price volatility over past two years as Co. expected headwinds encountered in past few quarters from higher product costs tied to slow rate of inventory turnover continued to affect margin but to lesser extent. 2. Expects some benefit from lower product cost in 1H of next year. 3. For current year, expects GM to decline more than 1 point from prior year. 2. Seeing rough diamond prices increase in recent months attributed to curtailed mining production earlier in year that helped to reduce supply relative to short-term demand weakness. 1. Over long-term, high quality diamond prices will rise as increasing global demand exceeds supply. 3. SG&A expenses declined 2%. 1. Smaller decline than in 1H09. 2. Pretty much as expected. 3. 7% decline in 3Q08 resulted from reversing YTD accruals at that time for lower anticipated management incentive compensation due to dramatic business slowdown. 4. Continues to track in line with substantial expected savings from staffing reductions made at start of year. 5. Reduced marketing spending this year. 1. Believes level of advertising and allocation by market is appropriate to support objective to increase market share. 6. With quarterly sales virtually equal to prior year, has minimal variable cost savings. 7. Recorded in SG&A expenses $4m charge or $0.03 per diluted share after tax for terminating management agreement after Co. brought out some minority interest in connection with diamond sourcing and polishing operations in South Africa and Botswana. 8. Expects to decline by mid-single digit percentage for full-year from last year’s SG&A that excluded various one-time items. 4. Based on aforementioned better-than-expected results, full-year operating margin from continuing operations should decline from adjusted 17.8% last year that excluded some one-time items. 1. Decline should be less than previously thought. 2. In year filled with macro challenges, performance should point to long-term potential for margin expansion. 5. Interest and other expenses, net, $11m. 1. Lower than last year. 2. Bit lower than expected. 3. Last year included: 1. Write-off of interest rate swap. 2. Some FX transaction losses. 4. Excluding aforementioned items, higher interest expense vs. last year reflected long-term debt issued over past year. 5. Expects to total about $48m for full-year. 6. Effective income tax rate, 22% vs. 32.1% last year. 1. Lower than initially planned. 2. Not included in earnings guidance from three months ago due to favorable reserve adjustments tied to exploration of certain statutory periods. 3. Benefited EPS by $0.04 per diluted share. 4. Expects to be approx. 31% for full-year, including various one-time tax benefits. 7. Net earnings from continuing operations, $43.3m or $0.34 per diluted share. 1. Slightly below $0.36 per diluted share last year. 2. Meaningfully above plan due to higher-than-expected sales. 2. Guidance: 1. Good start to 4Q09. 1. Nov. to-date worldwide sales tracking favorably to expectations. 2. Calls for mid-single digit sales increase. 3. Dec. results, most important. 2. Expects 8% decline in annual worldwide sales vs. previously expected 10% decline, based on: 1. Better-than-expected sales in 3Q09. 2. Some fine-tuning of 4Q09 sales expectations in certain markets. 3. Raising annual EPS guidance from most recent $1.65-1.75 to new range of $1.88-1.98. 1. New range includes benefits [and costs from recording] various one-time items. 3. Balance Sheet: 1. Continued to invest in business this year. 1. Has financial strength to comfortably do so. 2. AR at 10/31/09, 8% below last year due to lower sales volume. 1. Turning at 18 times per year. 3. Net inventories at 10/31/09, in good shape, down: 1. 6% from year-ago. 2. 4% from start of FY. 3. Meeting objective to reduce inventories this year by single-digit percentage while maintaining high levels of in-store product availability that Co. believes is competitive advantage especially in this environment. 4. YTD CapEx, $47m. 1. Down $109m last year due to fewer store opening and other cost containment. 2. Expects full-year CapEx of about $85m. 5. 3Q09-end cash and cash equivalents, $375m. 1. Up from $160m year-ago. 6. Total short-term and long-term debt, $753m vs. $821m last year. 7. Expects to generate in excess of $450m of full-year free cash flow. 1. Defined as cash flow from operating activities less CapEx. 4. Summary: 1. Performed remarkably well this year despite dramatic downturn in consumer spending by: 1. Taking steps necessary to ensure healthy levels of profitability and liquidity. 2. Investing in business. 3. Not compromising brand principles.

[Thomson Financial reserves the right to make changes to documents, content, or other information on this web site without obligation to notify any person of such changes.

In the conference calls upon which Event Briefs are based, companies may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items. Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those stated in any forward-looking statement based on a number of tiffany pendants factors and risks, which are more specifically identified in the companies' most recent SEC filings. Although the companies may indicate and believe that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements are reasonable, any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no assurance that the results contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be realized.

THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN EVENT BRIEFS REFLECTS THOMSON FINANCIAL'S SUBJECTIVE CONDENSED PARAPHRASE OF THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL AND THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE CONFERENCE CALLS. IN NO WAY DOES THOMSON FINANCIAL OR THE APPLICABLE COMPANY ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THIS WEB SITE OR IN ANY EVENT BRIEF. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL ITSELF AND THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S SEC FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS.]

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